BSE Share Price Falls 16% in March on Target Reductions and Regulation Issues

BSE Share Price: BSE Ltd. stock continued its declining trend, posting a fifth successive session of falling on Tuesday. The stock, which had a more than 3 percent intraday gain, eventually continued its losing run, adding a sharp 16 percent fall this month alone. The decline comes after a 12.6 percent fall in February and a meager 0.4 percent fall in January.

In spite of the recent decline, BSE stocks have registered a whopping 78 percent rise during the last year, which showed a good run-up before this bout of volatility.

Brokerage Worries Drag BSE

The most recent dip was prompted by Nuvama’s update of BSE’s target price with a ‘Buy’ rating. The brokerage reduced its target price to ₹5,160 from ₹7,250, citing fears of BSE’s market share in the wake of NSE’s derivative contract expiry schedule changes.

Nuvama sounded warning bells on the National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) move to change the expiry of its derivative contract to Monday, a day prior to BSE’s Tuesday expiry. The brokerage said the change may take a toll on BSE’s market share in the options segment, as retail traders are most active around expiry days.

BSE had earlier shifted its index options expiry from Friday to Tuesday, which had strengthened its market share from 16.4 percent in December 2024 to 22.1 percent in February 2025. With NSE’s expiry now scheduled for Mondays from April 4, Nuvama estimates BSE’s market share may slip back to 18 percent.

Further exacerbating concerns, Nuvama also pointed to SEBI’s recent consultation paper on derivative exposure limits, which could impact trading volumes. The brokerage subsequently cut its profit after tax (PAT) estimates for BSE by 0.2 percent for FY25, 13.4 percent for FY26, and 11.6 percent for FY27. This resulted in a downward revision of BSE’s earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 17.1 percent for FY25–27. In addition, Nuvama lowered BSE’s price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple from 50 times to 40 times, due to heightened competition and regulatory concerns.

BSE Share Price: Goldman Sachs Further Dampens Sentiment

Adding to the woes, Goldman Sachs also cut its target price for BSE for the second time this month. The brokerage, which has a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock, lowered its target price to ₹4,230 per share.

Earlier, on March 3, Goldman Sachs itself had cut its price target from ₹5,650 to ₹4,880 due to risks arising from NSE’s shift in derivative expiry. The company echoed Nuvama’s alarm, warning that NSE’s action would sharply impact BSE’s weekly options segment, where it had been gaining ground.

Legal Challenges Add to Uncertainty

In addition to competitive forces, BSE is also facing legal headwinds. A Mumbai court has recently ordered registration of an FIR against former SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch and two BSE officials and others for alleged listing irregularities going back to 1994. The case is based on charges pertaining to Cals Refineries Ltd., alleging violations in granting listing approvals.

BSE has denied wrongdoing, pointing out that the officials cited in the case were not then in their positions and played no role in the issue. The exchange termed the claims as “frivolous and vexatious”, further explaining that the court’s order was done without notice or hearing an opportunity to argue its case. BSE has affirmed that it is seeking legal means to appeal the order.

Outlook for BSE

With mounting concerns over regulatory changes, competitive pressures, and legal uncertainties, BSE’s stock remains under significant pressure. While brokerages such as Nuvama and Goldman Sachs still foresee potential upside, their target cuts underscore the heightened risks to BSE’s growth trajectory. Investors will closely watch how BSE navigates NSE’s revised expiry schedule and the potential impact of SEBI’s regulatory proposals on its trading volumes.

Disclaimer: The opinions and suggestions made in this article are those of individual analysts and brokerage firms. The Chandigarh News suggests to investors to seek advice from certified financial professionals before investing in anything.