When will India be able to completely stop the Indus river water for Pakistan?

Indus Water Treaty: In the wake of the Pahalgam attack, India has suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, marking a pivotal moment in the longstanding water dispute between India and Pakistan. This move has left many questioning whether India could eventually cut off the water flow to Pakistan entirely. While experts suggest that it is technically possible for India to control the flow of water in the Indus River System, the road to this decision is far from simple and would require significant time and infrastructure development.

The Suspended Treaty and Its Immediate Impact

The Indus Water Treaty, which governed the sharing of water from the Indus River and its tributaries between India and Pakistan, has been a cornerstone of bilateral relations since its signing in 1960. The treaty allowed Pakistan control over most of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) while India was granted control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). This agreement was largely respected, despite tensions, including three wars between the nations.

However, the suspension of this treaty is a significant shift in India’s approach to its water resources and its geopolitical strategy. India now has the opportunity to bypass Pakistan in the management of the western rivers, potentially enabling the construction of dams and reservoirs without needing to inform or share data with Pakistan, as was required under the treaty. According to P.K. Saxena, India’s former commissioner for Indus waters, the suspension of the treaty will eliminate the need for mutual cooperation and data-sharing, marking the end of any legal constraints for India in utilizing the western rivers.

The Economic Significance of the Indus River

For Pakistan, the Indus River is not just a source of water—it is the lifeblood of its agricultural economy. Over 80% of the country’s cultivated land relies on the waters of the Indus, and nearly 93% of its water usage is for irrigation and power generation. With such a heavy dependence on the river system, any disruption could have disastrous consequences on Pakistan’s food production, energy supply, and overall economy.

The statement made by Pakistan People’s Party leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, “Either our water will flow, or their blood will flow,” underscores the significance of the Indus to Pakistan’s survival. The gravity of this threat reveals the high stakes involved for Pakistan, which is already facing economic and political instability.

Can India Completely Redirect the Flow of Water?

The critical question is: Can India control the water flow to Pakistan entirely? Experts in strategic and hydrological matters suggest that, technically, India could redirect the water flow and construct reservoirs on the western rivers. However, the required infrastructure and resources are currently lacking.

India has the potential to build dams and create more reservoirs, but such endeavors would take years to develop. Additionally, building new infrastructure without Pakistan’s interference would require not only time but also enormous investment. According to senior fellow at ORF, Sushant Sareen, while it is technically possible to divert the flow, the practical challenges make it unfeasible in the immediate future. India would need to construct new reservoirs and infrastructure that could store water and control its flow, but this is a long-term project.

The Geopolitical and Diplomatic Ramifications

Beyond the technical and infrastructural challenges, the diplomatic consequences of suspending the Indus Water Treaty are significant. If India chooses to withdraw entirely from the treaty, it could further escalate tensions with Pakistan, with potentially severe repercussions for regional stability. The suspension of the treaty sends a strong message to Pakistan, signaling that India is willing to take decisive steps to protect its national interests and secure its water resources.

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, had previously warned that “blood and water cannot flow together,” signaling India’s willingness to take action against Pakistan’s support for terrorism. This was the first indication that India might reconsider the Indus Water Treaty if Pakistan failed to address terrorism. The recent move to suspend the treaty serves as a powerful reminder that India is no longer willing to tolerate Pakistan’s hostile policies.

Long-Term Opportunities for India

The suspension of the treaty is not only a challenge for Pakistan but also an opportunity for India to assert greater control over the Indus River System. With the suspension, India can now pursue hydroelectric projects on the western rivers without notifying Pakistan. These projects could increase India’s water storage capacity and provide a source of power for its growing economy.

Additionally, India could use its control over the western rivers as a strategic lever, potentially using the water supply to exert pressure on Pakistan during times of crisis. For instance, India could release excess water during the monsoon season or restrict it during periods of drought, significantly impacting Pakistan’s water supply and agricultural output.

India’s Strategic Move

Strategic experts, including Chhelani, argue that India has another option at its disposal—exiting the treaty entirely under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969). The treaty allows a nation to withdraw if the other party commits a material breach. This could provide India with the legal grounds to completely sever ties with the Indus Water Treaty, making it easier to implement water diversion and dam-building projects without international repercussions.

Moreover, India could consider modifying the treaty to ensure more equitable water sharing in the future, taking into account its growing water needs and geopolitical concerns.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for India and Pakistan

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty is a game-changer for both India and Pakistan. For India, it opens the door to greater control over one of the world’s most crucial river systems, offering long-term opportunities to enhance its infrastructure, economy, and strategic position. For Pakistan, it is a wake-up call about its vulnerability when it comes to water security.

As the situation unfolds, the global community will closely watch how India leverages this new development. While the immediate effects may be unclear, one thing is certain: India has sent a clear message to Pakistan—and to the world—that it is prepared to take decisive action when it comes to safeguarding its national interests.

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