Indian Stock Market Outlook: 7 Key Triggers for Sensex and Nifty on May 15

Mumbai, May 15, 2025 – The Indian stock market is set for a positive opening today as early indicators suggest a gap-up start despite mixed global signals. The GIFT Nifty opened at 24,767, which is around 42 points higher than Wednesday’s Nifty futures close, signaling optimism among traders.

Let’s take a look at the 7 key things that changed overnight and are likely to impact the Indian stock market today:

1. GIFT Nifty Signals Positive Start

The GIFT Nifty‘s premium over the Nifty futures close points to a bullish start for domestic markets. This sets the tone for Thursday’s session as investors seem upbeat, brushing off global uncertainties.

2. US Inflation Data Eases Concerns

Fresh data from the United States indicates moderating inflation, which is generally positive for equity markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.2% in April, marking the smallest year-on-year increase in four years. This suggests the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate hikes, boosting investor sentiment worldwide.

3. Wall Street Remains Mixed

On Wednesday, US markets closed mostly higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.10%, continuing its positive run this week. The Nasdaq surged 0.72%, driven by tech stocks, while the Dow Jones slipped 0.21%, reflecting profit-booking in blue-chip counters. The overall trend supports cautious optimism.

4. Asian Markets Turn Red

Asian equities declined this morning as markets digested recent trade developments. Indices across Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Hong Kong opened lower after multiple days of gains.

• Nikkei 225: -0.90%
• Kospi: -0.29%
• Hang Seng: -0.42%

This may temper Indian market gains intraday but is unlikely to reverse the opening sentiment.

5. Gold Prices Tumble as Risk Appetite Grows

Gold prices fell over 2%, hitting a one-month low as investors shifted to equities amid easing global tensions. Spot gold is now at $3,181.62 per ounce, with US gold futures settling at $3,188.30. This decline reflects rising confidence in risk assets like stocks and commodities.

6. Crude Oil Slips on Iran Deal Speculation

Crude prices fell nearly $1 per barrel amid speculation of a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement. The deal could lift sanctions and increase global oil supply, pressuring prices further.

• Brent crude: $65.21 (-1.3%)
• WTI crude: $62.23 (-1.5%)

This could benefit oil-importing nations like India and support stocks in transportation, aviation, and paint sectors.

7. US-China Trade Thaw Provides Relief

Markets are buoyed by news that China will suspend certain non-tariff countermeasures, following an agreement with the US to lower tariffs temporarily. This truce in the ongoing trade war signals improved global trade flows, offering a broader tailwind for global and Indian equities alike.

Domestic Market Recap: Nifty, Sensex Close Higher

On Wednesday, both benchmarks ended in the green.

• Sensex: +182 points at 81,330.56
• Nifty 50: +89 points at 24,666.90

According to Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, “Markets traded in a tight range but managed to close higher due to easing inflation and supportive global cues. Sectoral performance was mixed, with metals, realty, and energy leading the charge while banking stocks underperformed.”

Midcap and smallcap indices also witnessed strong buying interest, each rising over 1%, indicating broad-based participation.

What to Watch Today

• Retail sales data and Walmart earnings in the US
• Intraday volatility from global macro news
• Performance of key sectors like metals, energy, IT, and FMCG
• FII/DII activity and midcap/smallcap momentum

Today’s market is expected to open with positive bias supported by a cool-off in US inflation, GIFT Nifty premium, and easing geopolitical risks. However, investors should remain cautious as global markets show mixed signals and volatility could persist.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Always consult a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions.